A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
